RUSI – North Korea: On the Brink of War?

Important basic firsthand knowledge about the current tensions with North Korea by Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) Research Fellow Andrea Berger. She argues North Korea’s recently belligerent statements against the United States will not necessarily lead to war.

More information

• Mary Beth Nikitin, “North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons: Technical Issues“, Congressional Research Service, 03.04.2013.
• Patrick M. Cronin, “Tell Me How This Starts: What war on the Korean Peninsula would look like“, Foreign Policy, 03.04.2013.
• Tomas van Houtryve, “No Man’s Land: Exclusive photos from the 38th parallel“, Foreign Policy, 03.04.2013.
• After a high-visibility display of military power aimed at deterring North Korean provocations, the White House is dialing back the aggressive posture amid fears that it could inadvertently trigger an even deeper crisis, according to U.S. officials. -> Adam Entous and Julian E. Barnes, “U.S. Dials Back on Korean Show of Force“, The Wall Street Journal, 03.04.2013.
• David Wright, “What Can North Korea’s Missiles Reach?“, All Things Nuclear, 04.04.2013.
• CIA’s former top Pyongyang analysts and Columbia University professor, Sue Mi Terry, thinks dictator Kim Jong-un will order a limited strike on South Korea — as a way to actually tamp down hostilities: “It will be something sneaky and creative and hard to definitively trace back to North Korea to avoid international condemnation and immediate retaliation from Washington or Seoul.” In March 2010, it sunk the South Korean corvette Cheonan, killing 46 sailors. That November, Pyongyang attacked the island of Yeonpyeongdo during a U.S.-South Korea military exercise. Today, it moved an intermediate-range missile to its east coast, seemingly a feint at Japan. “Something like Cheonan is more likely than an artillery strike like the November 2010 shelling of Yeonpyeong Island, because it lessens the chance of a definite retaliatory strike by the South,” Terry assesses. -> Spencer Ackerman, “Ex-CIA Analyst Expects North Korea to Attack South Korea Before Tensions End“, Wired, Danger Room, 04.04.2013.