Does a NATO-Colombia partnership make sense? Is cooperation with Brazil realistic? Will NATO be needed to fight piracy in the Gulf of Guinea? Finally, has NATO any role to play in the wider South Atlantic area?Membership for Colombia?
Recently, Colombia’s president proposed that his country could become NATO member. However, later the Colombian government pedaled back. On the table is now a new NATO-Colombia partnership. Given against all odds, Colombia would have become NATO member: For What? NATO Europe’s expeditionary capabilities are shrinking without an end in sight. Hence, NATO as a whole would not have been able to give a credible defense guarantee for Colombia. Only the US can do, but therefore Washington would not need NATO.
Officially, NATO says that there is an “open channel for future cooperation” with Colombia. In diplomatic language, such words can mean everything. If the idea is not slowly dying in the next months, we will see only some talks. However, during NATO-Colombia talks, status-quo and collective defense oriented member states would oppose any measures lifting NATO-Colombia cooperation to a strategic level. Nevertheless, working level efforts and things like training and education would probably not get a veto, as NATO already has working level contacts worldwide.
Unfortunately, a working level cooperation between NATO and Colombia does not have much to offer. Colombian forces could contribute to NATO missions as Argentina did on the Balkans in the 1990s. However, due to political exhaustion and austerity the era of large-scale NATO missions is coming to an end. Thus, Colombia will not get an opportunity to decide whether to contribute or not. Any NATO-Colombia partnership would just include the unspectacular – but useful – measures NATO is doing with all other partners: training, education, best practices sharing, et. al. In consequence, do not expect much with political worth from a NATO-Colombia partnership.
Partnership with Brazil?
Brazil wants Western powers to stay out of its sphere of interest in the Southern Hemisphere. Moreover, the US would be reluctant to give a less capable NATO a role in South America. There would be no benefit for Washington. Thus, there are few real prospects of a substantial NATO-Brazil partnership. Cyber-Security may be an issue of common concern. Certainly, any publicly known NATO-Brazil cyber-cooperation would provoke debates nobody needs and reactions by third parties such as China.
What we will surely see is an increasing outreach from NATO member states to Brazil. Beside Portugal (remember the common history) and the US, Germany has a “strategic partnership” with Brazil, which has not delivered anything strategic, yet. Moreover, before 2030 Brazil is going to replace its aging aircraft carrier. As the country is unable to build one on its own, Britain and France may be candidates where Brazil could go for carrier-shopping. Otherwise, China will be happy to deliver.
Counter-piracy in the Gulf of Guinea
Regarding piracy, the situation in the Gulf of Aden is getting better, while the problem in the Gulf of Guinea is worsening. Right now, the Western African piracy is only taking place in the littorals, not on the high seas. Thus, it is among the particular states to solve their problems in their territorial waters and exclusive economic zones.
A new NATO operation would only have to be considered once the pirates reach the Atlantic’s high seas. However, international attention for the problem is already there. The international community has now counter-piracy experience in the western Indian Ocean. Thus, do not expect a NATO mission soon, because the problem is already dealt with. Moreover, even if the Western African pirates would turn high seas, it is far from sure that austerity-suffering NATO would take on that job. Some national states (France, Britain, Portugal, USA) could try to act on their own or countries like Brazil would try to underline their global ambitions with action.
With an eye on geopolitics, the South Atlantic is on a clam track due to the lack of great power conflict. Today Brazil is facing a social and economic crisis. However, World Cup and Olympics will do their share to bring Brazil’s politicians, people and economy back on a good track. The only plausible scenario for a great power conflict is – in the long term – a triangle of competition between the US, China and Brazil; the latter as a swing state. China’s attention in the South Atlantic is growing and the US will not stay passive.
Nevertheless, the there is no role and therefore no need to for NATO to reach out to the wider Southern Atlantic area. NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen has traveled around the world during his time in office. As far as I know, he has never visited South America. Please leave it like that. There are more important areas, like the Eastern Mediterranean, to which NATO should pay attention.